Mike
Space Pioneer
Posts: 82
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Post by Mike on Jun 22, 2017 18:18:11 GMT
SpaceX Mars Vehicle is supposed to have enough space for 200 people eventually. That probably will strip ship from any available extra cargo, so trip would be possible for already established Colony only. So maximum number can be quite high.
Lets evaluate minimal number of people needed to run such Colony. This is dangerous environment, so I would say at least TWO persons should be available (and awake) monitoring everything all the time (in case one have to take a leak). How long can they keep their attention? Probably less, than 12 hours, so that would require at least 3 pairs, so 6 people. And that is only for monitoring activity. Second pair would be sleeping, and third available for running base, and emergency. So no less, than 6 Colonists, and that assumes, that they are not doing anything long term outside (like erecting new buildings). Probably double that number if hydroponic needs attention, also for most of the time.
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Post by guzlomi on Jun 23, 2017 22:28:16 GMT
Interesting calculations. But this would be for a first stage.
I understand that the final goal would be to create an autonomous colony, able to live without the Earth help or more people (just think about WW3 or a big meteorite). So how many people would be the minimum enough to allow Humans to begin from zero and evolve into a new space civilization? 100? 200? 1000 people?
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Mike
Space Pioneer
Posts: 82
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Post by Mike on Jun 24, 2017 9:04:10 GMT
Hey aren't we currently designing initial stage of Colony? Now, the other minimal number would be one needed to keep healthy genetic difference for infinite time. I'm not sure how many generations are considered safe. 3, maybe 5? Obviously every pair would need to have more, than 2 children, so Colony can grow. Simple calculation for 3 generations: Every pair would need at least 3 children Those children need partners from other pair, so 2 initial pairs And their children also need someone outside of their genetic pool, so another 2 pairs Third generation, needs partners from another 4 initial pairs, so... 8 initial pairs, 8 pairs * 3 children = 24 children, and 16 parents first generation 12 pairs in second generation with 36 children 18 pairs in third generation with 54 children OK, I'm actually calculating here simple repopulation of Colony, assuming nobody dies, and everyone find healthy partner, and they have only 3 children per pair. So, overall 16+24+36+54=130, well it's getting big.
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petrv
Space Pioneer
Posts: 93
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Post by petrv on Jun 24, 2017 18:00:31 GMT
I found some Mars preps calculations where the ideal crew number was calculated to 120 people, I´ll try to find it again...
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Post by phicksur on Jun 26, 2017 12:12:35 GMT
The station design I had put together was for 1000 persons (600 adults, 600 children (count as half) and a bit of 'wiggle room'.
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Mike
Space Pioneer
Posts: 82
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Post by Mike on Jun 26, 2017 13:29:33 GMT
The station design I had put together was for 1000 persons (600 adults, 600 children (count as half) and a bit of 'wiggle room'. Equal number of children seems quite low. How much space is planned for water, and food production?
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petrv
Space Pioneer
Posts: 93
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Post by petrv on Jun 26, 2017 21:32:11 GMT
I´m sorry but I don´t think the space is CURRENTLY good place for childrens. The radiation significantly increasing the possibility of commencement of cancer, there are already known problems with eyes if staying longer than 9 months in low gravity despite the obvious bones and muscle problems. So it will need much more research/long term testing before some kids will go up there...
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Post by phicksur on Jun 27, 2017 12:02:06 GMT
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Mike
Space Pioneer
Posts: 82
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Post by Mike on Jun 27, 2017 12:09:04 GMT
I´m sorry but I don´t think the space is CURRENTLY good place for childrens. The radiation significantly increasing the possibility of commencement of cancer, there are already known problems with eyes if staying longer than 9 months in low gravity despite the obvious bones and muscle problems. So it will need much more research/long term testing before some kids will go up there... But we have, so far, only experience with ZERO G. AFAIK astronauts are able to walk without problem, right after returning to Earth, those wheelchairs are only for safety. And damaging of vision only came recently with one American Astronaut (and not very young, I would add). Now I don't deny, that there are problem with bones, and muscles, and it can affect children in serious way, but it is all because of NO GRAVITY, and we are planning Space Station with ARTIFICAL GRAVITY close to Earth one.
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petrv
Space Pioneer
Posts: 93
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Post by petrv on Jun 27, 2017 23:36:33 GMT
that´s true. But still there is the cancer issue due to radiation/insufficient shielding...which is VERY risky with childrens while growing...
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Post by phicksur on Jun 28, 2017 12:51:49 GMT
Part of the station design I was working on will have radiation taken into account. Between the 'citizens' and the outer space will be a great deal of material which will shield the inhabitants.
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